The windward boat doesn't have to anticipate that the leeward boat will try to luff her, yet the leeward boat has to anticipate that her luffing could cause the windward boat to capsize- hence the leeward boat has virtually no defense against a boat passing to windward. Something about that doesn't seem right to me.
Rule 16 is a shield, not a sword.
It limits the actions that a right-of-way boat can take. It does not bestow any tactical advantage on the give-way boat. If a windward boat (W) establishes an overlap on a leeward boat (L) such that L cannot change course without making contact, then W is clearly breaking rule 11. If L luffs up to protect her position, she must do so in a way that allows W to keep clear. As long as she does, W must respond promptly and in a seamanlike way.
My statement was that L cannot luff up so hard and so suddenly that W has to do something unseamanlike, such as crash-tack or capsize. If L luffs high enough, W might have to douse her chute - in which case L must give her room to do it.
The rules do not prevent a boat from sailing into an untenable position. If W allows herself to get so close that she cannot respond to a luff, then she's out of luck. She can't use rule 16 as a weapon against L.
That holds true no matter what kind of boats are sailing, and no matter how little or how much each skipper knows about the characteristics of the other boat.
Sincerely,
Eric