On my flight to the US last week I watched the movie Deep Water about Donald Crowhurst (excellent btw). Though the circumstances are different, this reminds me a lot of that.

Obviously, this is his wife's fault. All she had to do is insist that she was going with him. <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

While there are similarities...Crowhurst had different motivations and pressures. He was in a financial bind with his business (nautical radio direction finding equipement) and basically got deep in hock with his sponsor who would get his business, boat & home if he failed to complete the race. A very ugly situation indeed...not all of which Crowhurst can be blamed for...

This Vann guy is completely self-motivated as far as we can tell. We can only hope that when things get bad, he can make it to safety...there are no huge external pressures for him to continue beyond his limits or the boats.

A few days? When I race cats, *IT'S INSTANTANEOUS*!!!! <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />

How about the part where he doesn't have an engine or ANCHOR(!) because the boat it's "built for the open ocean"
Guess he knows a guy with a tugboat where he's going....

I just finally got around to reading this guys blog. Man is he nucking futs. I always root for the underdog, just as I did for super bowl but I believe this guy is going to die. But just for fun, I will bet he does not have trip ending failure before he reaches Cape Horn buts thats where the boat will come apart and he will probably die.

Boy are you optimistic...I think reality will set in on him long before cape horn and he bails out with a minor failure...something like he forgets a frying pan.

Gosh, if he needs a frying pan, all he will need to do is reach out and grab a piece of aluminum plate as it peels off the various failing structures! Of course, some purists do not like to cook on aluminum, but hey, he'll just have to make a sacrifice or two (before he makes the ultimate one...)!

Can we place bets ?

I think he's going to make it, but with some damage to the boat. I know...I'm a dreamer. I think so is he.

I think the boat will hold together to get him out far enough to be beyond immediate assistance. It will also be a pig to steer (have you seen the pictures?) as there's square bows and keel turns on all 3 hulls. So it will also take severe loads in big seas as those sharp corners resist the wave engergies.

My bet is the aka's (which are welded tubular sections) will fail either at the ama attachment points or the main hull, or they with just buckle at one of the many sectional welds along their lengths.


He's putting all his hope on the foam filled floatation..."unsinkable" ...but very heavy, little to no free board and not preventing structural breakup.


Mike.

I know a guy in Oside, CA that sailed a Cal 20 around the world in the 80's. It had that fake grass carpet glued to the decks and .5" marine ply boards to cover the windows in case of bad weather <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif" alt="" />. The boat was still in Del Mar Marina last time I knew. The thing was beat! The Cal 20 was built for a weekend cruise to Catalina Island at best, not an around the world voyage.

Some guys just get lucky.

Read the book "Trekka Around the World". A book about a guy that built a 20 foot boat out of wood and sailed around the world. Keep in mind the boat was designed by a boat designer and the guy was some kind of carpenter so he clearly new what he was doing during the construction. It is not always necessarily the size of craft, as much as it is the design, construction and of course the skipper.

Today's the Day for TinCan Tri...

According to the most recent blog entry, he is to launch that beast sometime today, test it in the bay tomorrow and leave for San Diego Sunday...potentially continuing on for a full lap about the globe.

Anyone in SF area able to get photos/vids for us?

TinCan in Latitude on-line mag:

Latitude Article

So long as people are being honest with their answers, the poll isn't too optimistic. Only 2 out of 29 votes say he's going to even make it.

well he's supposed to be in the water now and moored somewhere for the night in SF bay.....going to be tricky without an anchor but he'll work out something i'm sure

OR he's been delayed again which puts his launch back further and that'll mean riskier weather for a non-stop circum. but actually if it does sail i suspect he'd much rather stop in at every port for publicity/money/rebuild reasons and then it won't matter when he casts off

wonder if he's planning the movie now, could get krakauer? of "outside" fame to ghost write the book and maybe sean penn to for the movie

does he know how that story ended?

Latest on Sailing Anarchy states he has not launched as of today. This came from a phone call someone apparantly made to the boatyard operators.

Another "deadline" slips... <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" />

I don't know that I would use words like "deadline" with this topic. It might have other meanings by the time this is all said and done.

this whole thread reminds me of the new H16 sailor that we warned about sailing by his self in the winter, and we all know how that turned out. maybe Tin can will have better luck..