Kris, I'm not sure how to respond.

Does this help?

http://www.bcbaywatch.com/

Right now, I would expect racing to be perfect. We're at slack tide (11:12 a.m.).

So bcbaywatch.com is more indicative, thanks. Wind direction seem to correlate between the two sites but bcbaywatch reports stronger winds overall than at the NOAA site after converting to same units.

Going back to the original topic I find a good guide to when you can tack for the windward mark is when your rear beam points directly at the mark. Therefore, if you're on port and being lifted you go that much further to compensate for the header on the starboard tack and vice versa, if you're being headed on port you can tack that much earlier. If there is a lot of traffic up wind of you then when my rear beam is pointing at the mark I count to ten and then tack as that should give me enough interest to compensate for dirty wind, shifts etc. The counting isn't not very scientific I know but it seems to work, as for the rear beam technique that works well as you'll be going through 90 degrees when you tack and bearing in mind we beat at around 45 degrees off the true wind direction you'll be there or there abouts.

I put emphasis on a point I think it is very important to note.

Pete, maybe you can agree with me, same as Matt. Boca Ciega bay is like sailing indeed! BUT, with current. When the A mark is usually placed towards the Don Cesear you always have to overstand the layline because of the current ripping from NORTH to SOUTH...Agree? Kinda sorta? Maybe?

As far as weather for Boca Ciega, go to these websites:
http://www.sailflow.com/
--Home Reegion upper left of the page - Tampa Bay
--Home Site upper right of the page - Boca Ciega -its pretty accurate.
Here is another really good one.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=33707&wuSelect=WEATHER

Another good one to look from is my window, too bad I can link you guys to my view.

Agree. Tide is always a factor.

For the original question, I'd recommend getting a reference point that you can "usually" lay the mark (off the rear beam, maybe?). Then sail to that point and then count seconds up to some number to give you the fudge factor.

The number of seconds are dictated by:
1. distance from A mark, count higher the further away
2. consistency/strength of wind, count higher for variable/light winds
3. presence of any current, count higher for adverse current

I usually count anywhere from 3 seconds to 10 seconds.

This is assuming you do not have other boats to consider tactically or to use as a guide as to where the lay line is.

I (like Timbo) have spent quite a few hours on lakes and it is much faster to make the mark the first time, as long as the overstand is realistic. There is nothing more frustrating than two quick tacks in light air, whilst your competition glides around the mark.

Once you make the call and tack, make sure you still maintain max boat speed. The worse thing you can do is tack and then go slow pinching and hoping you might make it. Losing ground pinching and then having to eat 2 extra tacks is double jeopardy.

Agree completely. It is much better to double-tack than to get sucked into the mark as eveyone goes around you and set their spins. If you are not going to make it, foot off early and give yourself plety of room to double tack and get back into traffic on the starboard lay line.

BTW, over time the number of seconds you have to count should decrease. The idea being that overstanding a little bit in light air is preferable to the dreaded double tack at the mark. Of course, the goal should be to hit every line perfectly - not that I have ever done that. i have spent too much time saying "just a little lift, just a little lift....." while going 2 knots to the mark.

My method is simple: If I can see the mark over my shoulder turning my head toward the back of the boat I know it's time to tack.

A long time ago I had a book called something like "Hobie U" or something close. In the book someone had done the math and drawn diagrams on how much speed vs. distance you lose or gain by going up or down in 5 degree increments (I think it was 5 degrees) on a close hauled upwind course.

The math showed pinching up 5 degrees will shorten your distance but kill your speed, and not in an equal proportion, but much more speed is lost than distance gained. And footing off the same 5 degrees would of course increase your distance, but with a much greater speed increase.

The bottom line was, when it doubt, or in light and shifty winds where the layline is constantly changing and it is impossible to pick the perfect layline, it is always better to overstand, sail a slightly longer course but going much faster, than to try to pinch up the 5 degrees when you get headed.

And of course then there is the 2 tacks if you can't lay it.

And there is also the anchor line to be sure you miss, so you had better figure that into your layline.

And any adverse current.

And any other boats ahead who might be gassing you on the final approach.

And any boats behind who you would like to keep behind you.

And is that a puff coming from over there?

And what about that guy coming in on Port, is he going to tack on me and kill me?

Won't that carry you past the rhumbline on starboard tack, resulting in extra distance sailed? (fwiw- a H14 turbo carried starboard tack to some extreme distance in the second race and was 2nd or 3rd at the weather mark! )

Re-read what Timbo just posted, in a nut-sheel, pinching is slow, footing is fast. I chuckled when I read your post Pepin, in the heat of a race I tend to over-analyze and beat myself sometimes (OK...most of the time ).

Someone already stated my tactical strategy for the starboard layline. If your leading wait until your competitor tacks, unless you're certain they're WAY overstanding and wait until they look away for a moment, then tack. If you're not in the lead, and a long way from the top mark, try to hit the line right on, sail like hell (don't pinch) and bank on getting a few good lifts to carry you above the mark...strategy to make up boat-lengths. If your close to the leader, try to force him to overstand (and tack first), especially if you've been gaining a bit on them. Don't look away and tack right with them, you'll be below them but footing and fast, and certain you'll make the mark, its a drag race at that point.

When sailing to the port layline I don't want to overstand here. If in the lead definitely make the first move, as you're going to tack again before the mark.

My two cents. Great thread Pete!
ps pay no attention to those damned H14T's! With that huge over-lapping jib the only point of sail that's fast is a close reach, that's their VMG sweet spot, and their portsmouth # is "rigged"! ps

If you wanted to sail the shortest distance, you would start on port, go all the way to the stbd. layline, tack once and come in exactly on the layline to the mark. Unfortunately, that's a lot harder to do in reality than theory, because of all the variables I mentioned above.

As I said earlier, "There is no layline" when it's light and shifty and they put A mark in a hole near the trees. You just have to make the most of the wind you are in -now- and look up the lake for the next puff.

Some years ago at the Wildcat regatta, back when I had my I20, it was good and windy on day 1 and I had my 12yr. old son Tom crewing for me.

Well, by the end of day 1 he was pretty beat up and I could tell he really didn't want to sail on day 2, oh, and his hands were all bloody from the ripped blisters, etc.

At the party Sat. night I ran into Alex who was not sailing but working a crash boat. He asked Tom how he liked the I20. Tom showed his hands and said something like, "You want to sail with him tomorrow?" We laughed but Alex thought about it and then after some beers, he said yes but of course my scores would not count. Since I was already DFL there was no way I was going to salvage any scores. I really wanted to learn to sail the boat properly, and Alex, an I-20 champion, who better to learn from?

I wanted him to drive so I could watch the master at work, but he said no, he wanted to crew. He was going to be racing with Nigel soon, as crew, and he hadn't crewed in a long while so he wanted to practice as crew.

OK, so what did I learn from Alex? I could write a book but the short version is; Get your Head out of the Boat! And "Don't PINCH!" Especially on a lake, on a shifty day.

He was seeing the puffs coming from way up the lake and had me tacking towards them, twice as often as I would have, but he was correct 90% of the time and when the puffs got to us, we were almost always lifted. He turned some pretty bad starts (all 3-totally my fault) into 3 bullets for the day.

I've never seen anyone work that hard on a boat, in a "counts for nothing" type race. It didn't matter to me, but it mattered to Alex, and he would not allow me to just phone it in. I think I still have one of his sneakers up my butt. "Intense" would be a huge understatement but he taught me a lot, and not about driving, but about attitude and priorities.

Pete is right, the top guys always seem to figure it out, no matter what the wind, and that's why they are the top guys. Rolf is right too, there is no substitute for time on the water.

First you have to get your boat handling skills to the point where you can spend your time looking upwind for the next shift instead of getting your feet untangled from the mainsheet, spin sheet, spin halyard and looking at the mast, wondering if the rotator and downhaul is right...as you sail into a huge hole and come to a stop. And then you have to -never- give up.

Alex was cited more than once at the last Wildcat. Apparently there is none better.

Has he written any books?

Usually no. I find this a fairly accurate way to check the laylines. Try it, in practice I don't think it's that much different from the rear beam alignment method.

The layline I have the most trouble finding is C mark, when going downwind under spinnaker! It seems no matter when I gybe, I'm either too high or too low...never perfect and if I do get it nearly right, there is usually another boat converging on me to mess up my drop!

I guess that's why we race though, for the challenge, it's never the same game or it would get old.

Sight over the rear beam again (usual adjustments will have to be done, but 90deg gybing angles is a good starting point)

Pepin, how is your neck flexibility (I think both methods works, but getting adding all the adjustments is something that have to be learnt)

Pepin:
You need a new avatar!

Lol