| Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: brucat]
#278860 05/06/15 09:01 AM 05/06/15 09:01 AM |
Joined: Jun 2001 Posts: 3,906 Clermont, FL, USA David Ingram OP
Carpal Tunnel
|
OP
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 3,906 Clermont, FL, USA | Wait, now we're looking at data and saying that the PN numbers are actually pretty good? What are we ever going to do with all of these torches and pitchforks?
Mike Mike how did you even remotely put together that I'm ok with DPN? I'm saying exacly the opposite and Jakes data shows there is significant differences between SCHRS and DPN so I'm even more motivated to either dump DPN outright or adjust it based on the numbers used in europe. But thanks for taking the issue seriously.
David Ingram F18 USA 242 http://www.solarwind.solar"Do or do not. There is no try." - Yoda "Excuses are the tools of the weak and incompetent" - Two sista's I overheard in the hall "You don't have to be a brain surgeon to be a complete idiot, but it helps"
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: David Ingram]
#278861 05/06/15 09:39 AM 05/06/15 09:39 AM |
Joined: Dec 2001 Posts: 5,590 Naples, FL waterbug_wpb
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 5,590 Naples, FL | Well, at least now i know what you folks at the pointy end of the fleet(s) talk about.
Back in the middle-DFL group, we ponder such questions as:
"how did that spinnaker get launched upside down (BK)" "Why is the C-gate over there?" "the bunny goes out the hole, around the tree, and back down?"
But, should a handicap system base their numbers on the theoretical perfect race for each design? In which case polars (both wind and sea-state) would be the only real data. Actual race data factors in human performance which varies widely.
Jay
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: waterbug_wpb]
#278862 05/06/15 09:41 AM 05/06/15 09:41 AM |
Joined: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,655 Portland, Maine ThunderMuffin
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 3,655 Portland, Maine | Well, at least now i know what you folks at the pointy end of the fleet(s) talk about.
Back in the middle-DFL group, we ponder such questions as:
"how did that spinnaker get launched upside down (BK)" "Why is the C-gate over there?" "the bunny goes out the hole, around the tree, and back down?"
But, should a handicap system base their numbers on the theoretical perfect race for each design? In which case polars (both wind and sea-state) would be the only real data. Actual race data factors in human performance which varies widely. BWHWHAHAHA Thanks Jay.. that brought be back. | | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: David Ingram]
#278864 05/06/15 10:00 AM 05/06/15 10:00 AM |
Joined: Jan 2005 Posts: 6,049 Sebring, Florida. Timbo
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,049 Sebring, Florida. | I already posted my thoughts, I like math, because math don't care about who's a better skipper, who flipped, who had weeds, who got the best start, who overstood, or any of the 100 other things that happen out on the race course, as you pointed out above.
We are trying to figure out a way to accurately compare one type of boat to another type of boat. The only 'fair' way you can do that is to take the subjective human performance factor out of the equation. Measure the boats, weigh the boats, measure the sail area, and do the math.
As I said earlier, I'm sure there are many real, educated, licensed marine engineers like Morelli/Melvin that have the secret formulas already loaded in their computers, and they can tell you exactly how fast each boat should be, once you input the numbers for weight, sail area, hull length, board depth, etc.
They probably already have formulas developed for foiling too... but they may want to tweak that one after their G4 Splash down!
Blade F16 #777
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: David Ingram]
#278865 05/06/15 10:18 AM 05/06/15 10:18 AM |
Joined: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,224 Roanoke Island ,N.C. Team_Cat_Fever
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 3,224 Roanoke Island ,N.C. | Looks like the same ratio to me. I think you're stretching again trying to justify your gimme number while bitchin' about JC's. Shame on you. Interesting that the "gimme" number didn't work out all that well for you and that's with probably one of the most tallented multihull crews in the US. Is it really that hard to do as you're told? Interesting that you call it JC's number and not the the F20c foiler number Todd. Worked out fine for me.Podium finishes the ONLY two times I SAILED (not even raced) the boat.You might need to quit fabricating BS to propagate your gimme number. 3rd in the Steeplechase ,first time on the boat and 3rd in the Fl.300 in class, 2nd time on the boat.All with a rudder system that was like sailing a H-16 with the cams flipped(ask my world class crew about that) and almost whipped your butt with it like that. Either you suck or the number is suspect. As far as JC's vs. F-20c number, who were you crying about in the Miami/KL race? Who rebutted with he didn't care what the number was? I was just trying to make it simple for you because you seem to be MORE easily confused these days. I guess that's to be expected, with the age and all. Don't worry I'll bring you some prune juice ( and maybe some Rum) when you're in the home.I just hope you can remember me.
"I said, now, I said ,pay attention boy!"
The cure for anything is salt water - sweat, tears, or the sea Isak Dinesen If a man is to be obsessed by something.... I suppose a boat is as good as anything... perhaps a bit better than most. E. B. White
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: Kaos]
#278869 05/06/15 01:39 PM 05/06/15 01:39 PM |
Joined: Jun 2001 Posts: 3,116 Annapolis, MD Mark Schneider
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 3,116 Annapolis, MD | Kaos Here is my problem from race results. A) I have rarely raced in a sailboat race where the wind was consistent. Either direction or speed always changed. All of the rating systems make that a central assumption. This makes rating boat accurately almost impossible.
Sorry, Your conclusion is wrong. Most classes are more or less linear as the wind speed picks up. a Single number is fine... The subset of catamarans are more non linear then displacement monos. Foilers are extremely non linear. Handicaping is possible although the Precision of handicap racing is NOT close to One design Racing in determining the best sailed boat... The solution to handicapping increasing non linear performance is to use ratings based on the wind.... However... this adds complexity to running a race and both sailors and race committees have proven over the years to just not like using multiple handicap numbers. Point is... a solution is EASILY available in either measurement or Portsmouth type handicaping systems.. The ACCURACY of a ratings table is arguable... See my point to Mike... It is a freakin UNICORN.... See Jake's example... and the debate in the bar will close it down... AND it will be debatable forever... So... now you need a consensus and a governing authority to end the debate. In a fleet of 10 one design boats there can be a 30 minute difference between the first boat and the last boat. Is the first boat get used for the "correct" rating? In portsmouth... YES this is the ONLY data point used in updating the tables (IF other conditions are met as well). The Ginormous point is.... the 9 other boats ARE sailing to a rating.... Most of the time, even the second place boat is NOT even close to sailing to their published rating.... So you are really hairsplitting when you compare Portsmouth to SCHRS.... Why is this so... Because its the nature of sailboat racing... clear air is KING! Starboard trumps PORT... so you can add 10 seconds for the tack. and so on.. Bottom line... handicap will not have the precision of one design racing. Accuracy is a unicorn.... So, We agree on a mechanism to handicap and have the system sanctioned. They win... you are second, I am third. Enjoy life! Is the first boat get used for the "correct" rating? Now we have one Hobie 16 racing some other boats and he gets his data uses as if he was first. Was the sailor of that H16 of the same level as the sailor of the 1st one design sailor or the last? This is how results get loaded and it leads to a lot of variance and then we are into the land of false belief. You have identified the achilles heel of PORTSMOUTH handicaping. The foundational assumption is that the Hobie 16 first boat is as well sailed as the F18 first place boat. Large numbers of races between these two classes take care of this sailor difference... I defy you to list 100 races conducted anywhere in the country for a W/L race between a Hobie 16 and a F18.... much less finding 100 races between two evenly matched helms or as the system was designed TWO FLEETS Hobie 16s and F18s racing each other for 100 races (You don't want a Randy Smythe personal handicap rating...) This is why Portsmouth has become Portsmouth/PHRF. There is NO TRANSPARENCY in the PN tables constructed from this years data given the facts on the water in North American Sail boat racing.. MEASUREMENT systems.. (SCHRS or TExel or HPR or IRC for big boats) Don't have this issue.... they create the formula, PUBLISH the formula, apply it to a class's measurements and then see how the rating matches actual performance results.... looking at the entire FLEET of designs..... (eg... we look at pin head mains... on Hobie 16s and Prindle 16s and compare the PIN head factor to boats that use square tops... and so on..) You adjust the factors to fit valid data sets.... and work the problem year after year. When you get tired of racing in two boat one design fleets... Handicap racing is an alternative. (you probably can count and figure out your one design result) I make the case that SCHRS is a Fair and transparent system.... Form a consensus around one table or the other and ask for official sanction.... OA's will happily do what an organized body of sailors asks for... (they don't care... they want the max fun factor for their event) They can't listen to whinny bitches moaning abut the XXX rating....
Last edited by Mark Schneider; 05/06/15 01:47 PM.
crac.sailregattas.com
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: David Ingram]
#278872 05/06/15 02:37 PM 05/06/15 02:37 PM |
Joined: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,969 brucat
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,969 | Wait, now we're looking at data and saying that the PN numbers are actually pretty good? What are we ever going to do with all of these torches and pitchforks?
Mike Mike how did you even remotely put together that I'm ok with DPN? I'm saying exacly the opposite and Jakes data shows there is significant differences between SCHRS and DPN so I'm even more motivated to either dump DPN outright or adjust it based on the numbers used in europe. But thanks for taking the issue seriously. Obviously, you're not happy. I was actually referring to Jake's post. I was trying to add some levity. It's pretty obvious that I've been taking this seriously throughout the thread. Kaos: We (MHC) don't get to "tell" the PN committee what to do, we can only advise/recommend. We CAN push for a different system, just as soon as someone presents a real proposal (no Mark, none of your countless posts here equal a solid proposal worthy of presenting to the board). Mike
Last edited by brucat; 05/06/15 02:39 PM.
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: brucat]
#278874 05/06/15 06:07 PM 05/06/15 06:07 PM |
Joined: Jun 2001 Posts: 3,116 Annapolis, MD Mark Schneider
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 3,116 Annapolis, MD | Mike
You won't be getting a proposal from me either... This one is not a top down initiative...
The only people who write NORs are the Yacht Clubs and Catamaran Clubs) AND the national class associations for their sailors... (Obviously the class association is about one design.. however... they could play a role in advising their sailors.)
Once the sailors have proactively chosen... US Sailing could sanction the choice. How is a good question tho... Once upon a time... all of the Alter cup qualifiers used the officially sanctioned Portsmouth system... Most clubs followed suit.. There is no bell cow today... More the point... SCHRS is sanctioned by ISAF... Not a pissant insignificant organization so... SCHRS has all of the clout you need.
Bottom line, Sailors need to take a look and choose. Cyber would love for things to be simple... but he really should just poll his racers and see if they have paid enough attention to make an informed choice. The PN system simply cannot work in this day and age. its done... Again... Just publish a link to race results where a N17 is racing buoys against F18's and Hobie 16s...in the last 3 years.... that is how you get a portsmouth N17 rating... You can make up numbers aka PHRF for the boat... but it will NEVER have enough data. How about links to a Marstrom 20 racing buoys... that boat has been racing in the states for 10 years... Bet you don't find 100 qualified data points. Mind you... a fleet of 2 boats is silly to speak of it as a class.
Portsmouth is done... not because of the committee... rather there is NO qualified data being generated.
Sailors just have to choose.
Last edited by Mark Schneider; 05/06/15 07:11 PM.
crac.sailregattas.com
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: David Ingram]
#278887 05/07/15 08:48 AM 05/07/15 08:48 AM |
Joined: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,969 brucat
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,969 | No, I don't think most agree that PN doesn't work. It has limitations on how well/fast it can issue numbers for new designs; otherwise, it's as good (or bad) as any other system.
Most people complain when they lose a race and blame the number (doesn't matter what system is used, BTW). No one remembers their horrible start, blowing tacks, sailing on the unfavored side of the course, etc.
Sitting around coming up with personal handicaps sounds worse than regional PHRF ratings in terms of big-picture fairness and sustainability; but if it gets people on the water, and everyone is happy, I'd call that a win.
WE are US Sailing. It's been said in this thread (and others): join, show up and make a difference. Have a better idea? Propose it, but don't expect someone else to own it.
Mike | | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: brucat]
#278900 05/07/15 12:21 PM 05/07/15 12:21 PM |
Joined: Jun 2001 Posts: 3,116 Annapolis, MD Mark Schneider
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 3,116 Annapolis, MD | No, I don't think most agree that PN doesn't work. It has limitations on how well/fast it can issue numbers for new designs; otherwise, it's as good (or bad) as any other system.
Mike its BROKEN.... facts on the ground make it so. The system is BROKEN when it simply can't turn the crank as it did 20 years ago and generate a current table. It is broken when the underyling assumptions are no longer valid. Assumption... Boats contributing to the rating are in "racing shape" with "racing sails" All of the boats in the dead boat society probably have dead sails and are not in racing shape. Reporting the results for you 25 year old prindle 16 with sunrise sails vintage 1984 won't help! BUT... the system includes these data and the the prindle 16 gets Slower over time... Really? IT IS BROKEN! Assumption, Boats are actively racing in ONE Design Fleets AND they race in a handicap race to contribute to the data... Fact of life... ONLY Hobie 14s, 16s, 17s, 18s, 20s, F18s F16s, Nacra 17s, A cats and Isotopes can make this claim.... (They hold a Nationals each year) The rest of the ratings table should be FIXED in concrete but then you would have to declare the PN system BROKEN...... because now you are using PHRF discretion to set the ratings by freezing the dead boat society. The active one design sailors rarely if ever compete in handicap... (Dave would rather poke out his eye then race handicap) so... the assumption that the top of the class racers SAILING THE BOAT to its max contributes to the rating is not valid... The SYSTEM is broken. You also need a fleet of boats racing handicap... So... are two boats a fleet (M20).... is one boat a fleet (CFR20)... How many Nacra carbon 20s are racing? I think of a fleet as 10 boats... So did the PN committe years and years ago. The reason is.... you don't want to have a class rating determined by one single individual. (it is his personal rating...) Finally, you need valid data ie WL races with enough bench mark boats racing as a fleet eg more then one ..... to compare the hot new boat performance.. which also should be sailing as a fleet. We simply don't have that much of this kind of racing anymore. Portsmouth is dead! the 21st century killed it. It is most certainly broken. Now... can you make up ratings and add them to the PN table using PHRF... Absolutely... but that is not Portsmouth.... that is a PHRF table for beach cats. The PN committe can't make up data... and they understandably don't want to go down the PHRF rabbit hole... So... they drag their feet and wait till the multihull world generates a fleet of Flying Tigers who go handicap racing against Hobie 16s.. That is known as waiting for hell to freeze over. Kaos restates my point... Sailors tell the OA what they want to race under... If you pick SCHRS... you get a sanctioned handicap system. If you pick Portsmouth/PHRF... you get a sanctioned rating system... If you just know that the N17 rating should be XXX then you get the Portsmouth/Phrf/ Race to nowehere rating system.. The difference is transparency! There is NOTHING for US Sailing to do here.. If US Sailing wanted to help... they could kick in some money to have USA based ISAF certified measurers get the numbers for unique USA only designs and expand the table to boats unique to the North American market... EG Hobie 20s... Supercat 22s and so on. With a budget of zero... the MHC probably is not a player here. I won't write that proposal to US Sailing until I have more widespread adoption of SCHRS for handicap racing in the states.
crac.sailregattas.com
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: David Ingram]
#278914 05/08/15 06:37 AM 05/08/15 06:37 AM |
Joined: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,969 brucat
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,969 | I basically disagree with all of your points except the last one.
That, and the fact that most of us would rather stay home than race under handicap, except for specific events (distance, charity, etc.).
There's an idea...
Mike
Last edited by brucat; 05/08/15 06:43 AM.
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: brucat]
#278954 05/11/15 07:36 AM 05/11/15 07:36 AM |
Joined: Dec 2001 Posts: 5,590 Naples, FL waterbug_wpb
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 5,590 Naples, FL | someone remind my senile brain... Handicap for most of us is a time-on-distance thing, right?
So if I have a PHRF of 87 and the boat next to me has a PHRF of 80, he has to sail more 7 seconds per mile faster than me to place ahead of me on corrected time?
And if he is sailing 6.0 knots my target speed (assuming we sail exactly the same distance) would be 5.5 knots (my PHRF is 8.75% slower so 6.0 kts x 91.25% = 5.47 kts)? And this would give us an identical corrected time?
So then, if I can achieve my target speed successfully around the course, my mad sailing skilz would focus on sailing a shorter distance and having smoother transitions (up/down) than my faster PHRF competitor?
Jay
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: David Ingram]
#278955 05/11/15 08:01 AM 05/11/15 08:01 AM |
Joined: Jun 2003 Posts: 712 mikekrantz
old hand
|
old hand
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 712 | | | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: cyberspeed]
#278958 05/11/15 08:39 AM 05/11/15 08:39 AM |
Joined: Dec 2001 Posts: 5,590 Naples, FL waterbug_wpb
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 5,590 Naples, FL | speak for yourself... You've seen me sail, right? It's not that I'm doing it on purpose, but the cluster-f$k around the marks has everyone scattering around me. Apparently shrimping a spin is slow? Jeeze you think I'd get THAT memo....
Last edited by waterbug_wpb; 05/11/15 08:41 AM.
Jay
| | | Re: OH COME ON! That's right gramps is bent!
[Re: waterbug_wpb]
#278959 05/11/15 09:22 AM 05/11/15 09:22 AM |
Joined: Jun 2001 Posts: 3,116 Annapolis, MD Mark Schneider
Carpal Tunnel
|
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 3,116 Annapolis, MD | PHRF time on distance is the most popular version of PHRF Some areas use PHRF time on time.... which is analogous to SCHRS, TEXEL or Portsmouth. In handicap racing... you race the clock... not your opponents... slowing down one boat will lose the fleet in a heartbeat. Clearing you air is paramount versus covering an opponent.
The point about applying PHRF principals to Portsmouth ratings is the idea that a committee, makes their best guess as to a fair rating for your boat. Of course, this is always tough for a one off boat in a particular PHRF region and/or when the types of racing vary (reachy point to point versus windward leeward courses or regions with strong currents). The PHRF/Portsmouth Committee is well intentioned but by definition... not transparent. Key West Race week runs Handicap racing... and owners with million dollar boat go down and race... So, you can get a reasonable amount of buy in for a PHRF rating. At Key west... authority trumps transparency.
Pick your poison....Transparency is really important for racer buy in and support.... especially for sailors who are predisposed to "screw the man.... we are different" points of view.
crac.sailregattas.com
| | |
|
0 registered members (),
275
guests, and 85
spiders. | Key: Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod | | Forums26 Topics22,405 Posts267,058 Members8,150 | Most Online2,167 Dec 19th, 2022 | | |