Well here we go again, this thing is looking pretty big right now and they are saying it's going to get bigger as it gets closer to Miami. Friday night is going to suck. I hope all you guys can get your masts down, boats out of the water and tied down somewhere safe before it hits.

I don't know where all the water is going to go, we are already saturated up here in Sebring, above average rainfall for the past 4 months has all the lakes overflowing already, so if Irma dumps another 12-18" rain on top of that, it's going to be ugly.

Good luck men of South Florida (and the Caribbean) , we are all counting on you!

Good luck, Florida guys! Hopefully this will just turn away, especially away from any track that would take it towards areas still reeling from Harvey.

Mike

That thing is a scary monster at the moment - hurricane hunters recorded 187mph wind making it the second fastest recorded wind in a hurricane....which is also starting to spur a discussion about whether or not the saffir-simpson scale needs a category 6 (it currently stops at cat 5 which classifies hurricanes with winds over 157mph).

Some of the models deviated a couple of hours ago showing a more abrupt turn north north east just before it gets to FL...which would drive it back out into the Atlantic (where hopefully those highs will keep pushing it eastward). They're the minority of the models but fingers crossed!

I wonder if there's anything left of St. Marten, Barbados and the other islands it just went over.

Gonna be ugly come Sunday in Miami no matter which way it turns.

Just heard that they've ordered 100% evacuation of the Keys, and won't open any shelters there. Makes sense (a direct hit would put all of the islands under water), but have they ever ordered that before?

Undoubtedly there will be people that can't/won't leave, still hoping for a miss.

Mike

the storm surge in the keys will probably wash the place away... Definitely need the "GET THE F OUT" evacuation order. But yes, about 20% of them will stay, putting first responders at high risk to come bail their sorry butts out.

I'm on the fence about leaving at this point. The latest WX showed it a little more east of us on Monday which means it will still be really ugly, but possibly not catastrophic as the wind will travel over quite a bit of land (from Lauderdale) before hitting us. And there won't be much storm surge as the wind would be mostly offshore until it's past us

The Windy app, on the other hand, scared the sh&t out of me showing the eye grinding my town out of existence before running up to stomp on Orlando and then up near JAX.

These things are awful. It's very certain that really bad things will happen, but exactly where and how bad is still too much of a mystery far enough in advance to really react (other than, get off the Keys). Remember Irene? Took a weird track, didn't end up doing as much coastal damage as it could have (was still really awful), but caused flash flooding and destruction well inland, and up in the mountains! How do you avoid that???

Mike

Timbo, your more than welcome to evac to clearwater and stay w me if needed
seven 2 seven, 6 for too 39 thre fur (say no to spam bots)

I agree Mike. The forecast maps are great in one sense to get an idea of what might happen, but just because I'm not on the purple line of death doesn't mean I'm in the clear. A spawned F-2 tornado can wreck my house and leave the neighbor fine...

Charlie took a nasty right-hand turn and instead of leveling Tampa it ripped the roof off of about every house in Port Charlotte 75 miles further south. Caught a lot of people off-guard

I'm still hopeful this thing makes a further eastward curve and misses the east coast of FL, GA and NC but relying on hope is a poor strategy to prepare.

I can't talk my father-in-law into evacuating. He's right on the purple line of death right now.

Off to figure out how to secure the boat / trailer in case we do get 60+ knots of wind. Unfortunately, the storage yard doesn't have tie-downs. Chocking the wheels is about the only thing I think I can do... unless ya'll have other suggestions? Boat/trailer combined weight is about 2500#, but the Corsair F-24 has a lot of windage

Mast down for starters. Did you see the pictures of what was left of the hurricane hole in Tortola where the charter companies all moved their boats? Even some of the cruising cats capsized bare pole and it looks like every boat is trashed.


I'm in Greenville, SC and even I am going to retrieve my J22 from Lake Keowee because it's slip gets beat pretty hard with a North breeze. It will be mast down in my yard on the trailer between buildings.

I've sheltered in that hole during a storm. I saw that picture yesterday posted by Chris Draper. I was kinda expecting some carnage. Sir Richard rode it out in his cellar on Nectar.

I have charters booked in March, and May out of Road Town and West end, and one in the works for October (this one will get cut). Most of these boats are privately owned and require insurance for these events. Question is, how many boats can get replaced and delivered in time for peak season. There was already strong orders for the manufacturers.

Anyone that needs a place to store your boat while you are escaping Irma. We have free storage available at Lake Lanier Sailing Club - just north of Atlanta.

email me for details - mikekrantz@mindspring.com

Not looking good . . .
Soggy Dollar Bar on Yost Van Dyke

I'm pretty far inland in the upper left corner of SC and the 11am forecast today has what's left of Irma right on top of us as a strong tropical storm just under hurricane strength and they're saying it will probably still be a Cat 1 through Columbia, SC as it makes it's way up the I26 corridor if that track holds. We've certainly never felt the need to prepare for weather like this as far inland as we live. The current forecast track is also potentially devastating looking for Charleston to Hilton Head, SC. This is potentially going to be rough for a lot of people in SC.

Thanks for the offer, we are going to sit tight at home and hope for the best, the only good thing is, they are forecasting it to go right over Sebring, and the hurricane's always turn east or west once they make landfall, so maybe it'll zig or zag away from us at the last minute. We're still bracing for a full on eye wall direct hit, but hoping it doesn't happen.

What is the ground like in the storage yard? Could you get some of those long screws from Home Depot to tie down the trailer? They don't work too well up here (too sandy) but might work in your area.

Very very sad! One of my favorite happy places. Not confident in any trips for 2018.

BEYC & Saba Rock

Yes, mast is down as I usually travel with it, so it's ready to hook up and go.

Lot is paved, so I can't screw down anything

But I tied some wheel chocks on both sides of the tires, and dropped the tongue on the ground in the hopes that this will keep it from sailing around on the trailer. Being as light as it is (for the windage), it has rolled around once in a microburst thunderstorm.

I suspect my main concern is all the crap that will likely fly around and hit it. Couple of metal u-store-it buildings close by. Might block the wind (good), but could peel the roof off (bad) and sling those metal panels over the boat.

really sucks the tow vehicle is in the shop or else I'd probably move it somewhere... Not that being anywhere else around here is any safer, but hooked up to a truck might help?

I've yet to see the "right" ones at home depot - they have the pig tail type that will worm it's way out

These are the kind we use here in clwt that work well (not sure about in a 186 mph)

Yes, I've used those to secure the N20 in soft earth. Worked great.

We've got a limestone hardpan layer here about 8" under the surface, so it does limit getting those things dug in unless you get a pickaxe.