Hello all,
1. go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

2. As of 11 am (EST), TD#4 is now named as Dennis.

3. At 8 am , a 50 mph gust hit St. Croix, and winds are 25+ out of the south. Even though I am in Tampa right now, I view a St. Croix weather page constantly.

4. So, this storm is directly south of St. Croix. In open Caribbean Ocean waters. Just so you know, we all remarked how hot the ocean has been this month. It is like bath water. The position of Dennis, is perfect for growth.

5. I see the prediction calls for Hurricane strength by this weekend, offshore from Tampa ( and I came up here to get away from Hurricanes)

6. It is time to secure you boats. Really. Do not wait.

7. I secured my I-17 and Hobie 33 before I left. Strip everything off, everything. Point it to the wind ( bow first), or put in a bushy field. Keep your boat away from flying objects ( lawn chairs, BBQ, roofs)

The time is now. Go.

regards,

Bruce
St. Croix

Well, then, it's time for you to come to Ohio, Bruce.

WONDERFUL! I am headed to Tavernier Key for the week on Saturday! This better not interfere with my vacation

BTW, Mary, I've been traveling up to northern Michigan (Petoskey) quite a bit lately, and the weather up there has been just amazing. Although on the lake one minute you have a nice quiet sunny day, and the next you have a gale blowing through. Pretty unpredictable stuff. Beautiful area though.

These 'local' waves seem to be occurring more frequently than in years past. Even during the 'worst ever' '95 season they all marched over from Africa.

Jimbo

update thursday 5 pm

000
WTNT44 KNHC 072053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI
DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN
STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN
THAT AREA.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13. THIS MOTION
SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS
SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE
GFDL TRACK. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
SUITE. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE. OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK...
CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

Boy, I wish there was a way to blow these things out like a candle.

Me too Jake, me too.............

The problem is, hurricanes are an important part of heat transport from equatorial to polar regions. What we need is a network to redistribute the Earth's heat.

Fortunately, one is planned to come online in about 25 years.

And now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to Home Depot to check out steel storm panels to replace at least some of the accursed plywood.

That was posted over six or seven years ago. You think that page is pretty accurate?

On a serious note, good luck riding this one out. I know you guys are in bad shape up there.

Brilliant!

Here I sit in Paradise (Punta Gorda, FL) and another storm is on the way.

My daughter Kelly is in Sea Camp in Big Pine Key and will be evacuated tomorow to Miami where my wife will pick her up.

Dennis has ruined my vacation trip to the Keys.

After Charlie, I really don't want to deal with another one.

Fair Winds, but batten down the hatches with 3/4 BC Plywood!
Jack

Bruce,
Let's see you came here and last weekend we suffered with red tide (still going on). Then you planned a trip to the Keys (Their evacuating)Sooo your still here in Tampa and we're threatened with a hurricane......Bruce where are you going to be next week? I'm thinking I want to be a thousand miles in a different direction.

Maybe this storm will at least get rid of the red tide...YUK!

just hope "Jim Cantori" of the Weather Channel does'nt make an appearance either.Quote;They don't want to see me in P'cola no more..........No sh*& JIM ! Weather Channels harbinger of death Jim Cantori.

Hello All,

Here is the 5 am Friday update,..you gotta Cat 4 storm out there.

Direct hits are devistating. Once the eye hits land( as in continents), it is the beginning of the end

Equally devestating, is when the eye remains offshore, staying strong and healthy. Then the storm just blasts you with wind driven rain for hours.

A well constructed roof may take an initial blast of 125mph or so.

However, that same roof, exposed to 75mph for 6 straight hours, will go. The nails or fasteners cannot take the load for that long.

Unfortunately, with the eye of Dennis running the west coast of Florida, this is the scenario you will see.

By the way, when the wind hits a constant 25-30mph, you cannot hold a piece of plywood up anymore. And at 35-40mph ish, you cannot stand on a roof, you get knocked down to your knees.

Been there.

Nope, I did not plan a trip to the keys....but I am here! I am out of Tampa in 3 weeks....so more storms?...I pray not,...no one wants a Hurricane..

WTNT44 KNHC 080840
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

THE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE
CROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING
OVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF
SMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
A NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115
KNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR
ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER
CUBA BUT DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN
MOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE
CROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL
MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND
THE GFS THE FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE
OF THESE TWO MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING
CUBA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEVASTATION
ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS



WTNT44 KNHC 080840
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

THE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE
CROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING
OVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF
SMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
A NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115
KNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR
ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER
CUBA BUT DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN
MOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE
CROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL
MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND
THE GFS THE FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE
OF THESE TWO MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING
CUBA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEVASTATION
ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

It looks like a few clouds and a little rain. Why all the concern?

3:45pm update,

Hurricane DENNIS Update
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

UPDATE

000
WTNT64 KNHC 081910
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

REPORTS FROM THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AND CIVIL DEFENSE
THROUGH HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE A WIND GUST TO 149 MPH
OCCURRED AT CIENFUEGOS CUBA AROUND 130 PM EDT. MORE THAN 85 PERCENT
OF THE POWERLINES WERE DOWN AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED TO
THE COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE.

FORECASTER STEWART



...if you have been in 150 mph winds,..the human mind cannot comprehend what is happening around you......

..it is a big deal....get ready....time to pray..

Good Luck everyone !

Somebody has left the light in the Fort Jefferson Monument on Garden Key.We need a volunteer to go back. Anybody ? Mr. Cantori ?............

Planning on sailing tomorrow.

Some GOOD news for a change (and no, I'm not talking car insurance). Dennis weakend considerably over cuba and now it's peak winds are at 80knots. Although some strengthening is predicted, it's not expected to be a category 4 again.