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Re: Global warming [Re: waynemarlow] #89531
11/15/06 12:16 PM
11/15/06 12:16 PM
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 321
Albuquerque NM
Banzilla Offline
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mostly true, I would think that very little of the worlds total ice formations are bergs. The polar ice caps are not floating ice bergs are they?


[b] Sail Like you have a Pair
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Re: Global warming [Re: Banzilla] #89532
11/15/06 12:22 PM
11/15/06 12:22 PM
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 105
Bloomington, IN
jbecker Offline
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It is correct that melting of floating sea ice will do little to raise sea levels. The problem is mostly the huge glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. These are supported by land above sea level. From what I have read, if those melted completely the resulting sea level rise would be on the order of 200 feet. What has some climatologists worried is the Greenland glaciers are now moving much faster than expected.


Jeff
Tiger 849
Re: Global warming [Re: Banzilla] #89533
11/15/06 12:23 PM
11/15/06 12:23 PM
Joined: Feb 2006
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mostly true, I would think that very little of the worlds total ice formations are bergs. The polar ice caps are not floating ice bergs are they?


A lot is floating ice. I don't know the percentage.

Re: Global warming [Re: fin.] #89534
11/15/06 12:39 PM
11/15/06 12:39 PM
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 733
Home is where the harness is.....
Will_R Offline
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Home is where the harness is.....
Wow, last thread I was chastised for my "man made global warming is BS" view, but... I feel right at home here ;-)

Re: Global warming [Re: Will_R] #89535
11/15/06 01:04 PM
11/15/06 01:04 PM
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 321
Albuquerque NM
Banzilla Offline
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Will, I do not believe that Golbal Warming is man caused (Completely maybe .9%), but the Earth does change!!!!!


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Re: Global warming [Re: jbecker] #89536
11/15/06 01:05 PM
11/15/06 01:05 PM
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Posts: 308
Reno NV
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Rhino1302 Offline
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Reno NV
Quote
The problem is mostly the huge glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.


Recent studies indicate that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are gaining mass. It is speculated that warmer temperatures will increase snowfall in those areas, more than offsetting increased melting.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1115356v1
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/308/5730/1898

Re: Global warming [Re: Rhino1302] #89537
11/15/06 01:12 PM
11/15/06 01:12 PM
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 3,906
Clermont, FL, USA
David Ingram Offline
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More mass = more beach, it's all good.


David Ingram
F18 USA 242
http://www.solarwind.solar

"Do or do not. There is no try." - Yoda
"Excuses are the tools of the weak and incompetent" - Two sista's I overheard in the hall
"You don't have to be a brain surgeon to be a complete idiot, but it helps"
Re: Global warming [Re: David Ingram] #89538
11/15/06 01:21 PM
11/15/06 01:21 PM
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 5,558
Key Largo, FL & Put-in-Bay, OH...
Mary Offline
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Key Largo, FL & Put-in-Bay, OH...
So which is the better investment, property on the beach or property in the mountains? <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="" />

Re: Global warming [Re: fin.] #89539
11/15/06 01:30 PM
11/15/06 01:30 PM
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Posts: 12,310
South Carolina
Jake Offline
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South Carolina
the polar cap melting thing has always baffled me - so I ran some numbers. Note that the north pole is a floating ice cap so I've ignored it in the figures. The south pole is an ice sheet over land.

Ocean Surface area of the earth: 361 million km^2
Required Volume of water to raise the oceans 200 feet (.06 km): 22+ million km^3

The south pole has roughly 14 million km^2 of ice surface area and if we were to just look at the contribution of the south pole, the ice would have to be 1.6 km thick (above the water) to contain 22 million km^3. Reportedly (Wikipedia), there is 30 million km^3 of ice on the south pole alone - but I don't know how much of this is ice cap, ice sheet, or submerged.

Greenland's ice sheet surface area is a little over 1.8 million km^3...throw that into the volume calculation and the average ice thickness above the surface for Greenland and the South Pole would need to be 1.4 km thick.

Obviously, there's some more ice in Russia and Canada, so let's just toss in the whole surface area of Canada to approximate them both. Now the average ice thickness above the surface in Greenland, Antarctica, and Canada (assuming completely covered evenly) would be .8 km thick.

Basically, it's not as outrageous as I first thought (assuming that ALL of it would melt - dunno how practical that really is).


Jake Kohl
Re: Global warming [Re: Mary] #89540
11/15/06 01:30 PM
11/15/06 01:30 PM
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Posts: 4,451
West coast of Norway
Rolf_Nilsen Offline
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If possible, I would have bought land in: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Maud_Land <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />
Should be really nice once the ice is gone. Once it was tropical there, same as http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svalbard

Re: Global warming [Re: Banzilla] #89541
11/15/06 01:58 PM
11/15/06 01:58 PM
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,348
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Will, I do not believe that Golbal Warming is man caused (Completely maybe .9%), but the Earth does change!!!!!


I have seen only one estimate of total climate change related to "greenhouse gasses", 2%, and cannot vouch for the accuracy. The only thing certain is change, and that includes global climate.

I've no idea how much or how soon, but change is coming.

Re: Global warming [Re: Jake] #89542
11/15/06 01:59 PM
11/15/06 01:59 PM
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Posts: 321
Albuquerque NM
Banzilla Offline
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Albuquerque NM
Jake,

Are we taking into account the "Lay of the land" as it were.

For example, one of our lakes here in NM was sooooo low, (reported 80') Now, this summer, there was enough rain in the area, to cause a 20' rise over 3 weeks, now my guess is that if we have the same amount of water flow (in and out) it would take an ever increasing amount of time (there for water) to completely fill the lake. Islands dissappear and such.

As the water rises, flows past mountains and hills and into valleys.

Humm,


[b] Sail Like you have a Pair
Re: Global warming [Re: Mary] #89543
11/15/06 02:07 PM
11/15/06 02:07 PM
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,187
38.912, -95.37
_flatlander_ Offline
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38.912, -95.37
Quote
So which is the better investment, property on the beach or property in the mountains? <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="" />


Other than SF Bay getting larger and Florida and Louisiana disappearing everything remains pretty much status quo.


John H16, H14
Re: Global warming [Re: Banzilla] #89544
11/15/06 02:11 PM
11/15/06 02:11 PM
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 733
Home is where the harness is.....
Will_R Offline
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Home is where the harness is.....
I think change is happening, however I think our contribution is minimal. It's a VERY complicated matter and nobody fully knows the answers. The problem is that the general public are sheep and easily scared. Scared people can be controlled, control is power. There is money and power in global warming and that's why it's a hot issue. I personally am more worried a/b a big cooling than a mild warming. The earth is an open system and continuously changing... a little more complex than what we modeled in class <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" />

Speaking of sea levels. I know Jake simplified it quite a bit by not considering that area will change as levels rise. It was a good exercise in feasibility and got the wheels turning in my head. This would offset the total increase to some extent. I'm not even going to sit down and try to estimate the math. <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

Re: Global warming [Re: Will_R] #89545
11/15/06 02:41 PM
11/15/06 02:41 PM
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 105
Bloomington, IN
jbecker Offline
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Bloomington, IN
Quote
There is money and power in global warming and that's why it's a hot issue.


Pun intended? <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />


Jeff
Tiger 849
Re: Global warming [Re: jbecker] #89546
11/15/06 02:55 PM
11/15/06 02:55 PM
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 733
Home is where the harness is.....
Will_R Offline
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Will_R  Offline
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Home is where the harness is.....
Me pun?... never <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

Re: Global warming [Re: Will_R] #89547
11/15/06 03:00 PM
11/15/06 03:00 PM
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 321
Albuquerque NM
Banzilla Offline
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Albuquerque NM
Something else to worrieeeeeeee about, somebody told me a few weeks ago that the moon is leaving the earth's orbit!!!!!

Yes, at an alarming rate of 1" per year eeeeekkkksssss.

So, with less gravitonal pull from the moon, let the ice melt <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> in about 1,000,000 years, the water levels will be right back to where they are now. <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" />


[b] Sail Like you have a Pair
Re: Global warming [Re: _flatlander_] #89548
11/15/06 03:01 PM
11/15/06 03:01 PM
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 308
Reno NV
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Rhino1302 Offline
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Reno NV
The best investment is almost always in reducing uncertainty.

Lets say you think there's a 95% chance of a sea level rise, which will cost $100 billion to mitigate. It's a good investment to spend $1 billion (i.e. 1%) in research if you can increase that certainty to 99% (or decrease it 90%).

Don't forget the time-value of money either. Say you can buy land in Antarctica for $1/acre today, and it will be worth $10,000/acre in 200 years when that 1 km of ice melts off. Is that a good investment?

$1 invested at 5% per year = $17,293 after 200 years. Of course, none of us will be around to enjoy it, but this is all about our children, and our children's children etc. right?

It is heartening to see that, while so many of us can't be bothered to save for our own retirement, we still want to spend so much money on problems that will only affect the next generations. I guess we're not as selfish as we think we are.

Re: Global warming [Re: Rhino1302] #89549
11/15/06 03:04 PM
11/15/06 03:04 PM
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 321
Albuquerque NM
Banzilla Offline
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Albuquerque NM
Quote
Say you can buy land in Antarctica for $1/acre today, and it will be worth $10,000/acre in 200 years when that 1 km of ice melts off. Is that a good investment?


Do you get the water rights?


[b] Sail Like you have a Pair
Re: Global warming [Re: Rhino1302] #89550
11/15/06 03:11 PM
11/15/06 03:11 PM
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,348
F
fin. Offline OP
Carpal Tunnel
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Quote
The best investment is almost always in reducing uncertainty.

Lets say you think there's a 95% chance of a sea level rise, which will cost $100 billion to mitigate. It's a good investment to spend $1 billion (i.e. 1%) in research if you can increase that certainty to 99% (or decrease it 90%).

Don't forget the time-value of money either. Say you can buy land in Antarctica for $1/acre today, and it will be worth $10,000/acre in 200 years when that 1 km of ice melts off. Is that a good investment?

$1 invested at 5% per year = $17,293 after 200 years. Of course, none of us will be around to enjoy it, but this is all about our children, and our children's children etc. right?

It is heartening to see that, while so many of us can't be bothered to save for our own retirement, we still want to spend so much money on problems that will only affect the next generations. I guess we're not as selfish as we think we are.


I don't have any kids, may I have the $1 now, instead of investing?

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