Dave,
I agree with you that we have to honestly assess the risk, adequately prepare, and then have the skills to handle the various scenarios along the way. The piece that didn't settle too well is when you said, [color:"green"]
"if i fall over and never see the boat again, i have an epirb and someone from the coast guard will come and get me".[/color]
This is the same thinking that has gotten so many amatuer adventurers into trouble since the introduction the cell phone. I can't tell you how many folks I see in the wilderness with a cell phone clipped to their pack strap. Not to say that cell phones are a bad thing to have when one gets in trouble, but too often the availability of the device plays into the decision of go vs. no go. The attitude of, "I can just call somebody," has put a lot of folks at risk. (I speak from experience as a former member of Idaho Mountain Rescue.)
What I would suggest is to plan ones adventures as if there is no possibility for outside help. The thought of someone coming to the rescue shouldn't enter into the decision of whether or not to leave shore (trailhead, or whatever). Then, go ahead and pack the EPIRB's, VHF, ditch kit, etc., but head out with the attitude of getting oneself out of whatever comes along without outside assistance.
One other note about VHF. It's a line of sight device. If my antenna were three feet above the water's surface, it is only a little more than 2 miles to the horizon, so I can expect to reach across 4 miles if the other receiver is at three feet high. Put the other receiver at 15 feet and you can expect a range of 6.5 miles. Now, put yourself IN the water. You can expect to reach that other 15 foot high antenna over a range of 4.5 miles.
My point here is that VHF is limited (and I haven't even mentioned what happens when that "waterproof" radio proves less than manufacturer's claims).
Sail safe