I use that noaa site all the time. Go to the lower left "Digital Forecast" and keep digging down until you get the southern tip of Florida only in view. See that at 10 am gusts will be close to 30 knots, at 1 pm gusts in the lower 20 knots.
30 to 35 at 5am??? All the boats still on the beach? <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" />
As of 10:08 a.m. the winds in the area are 21 knots gusting to 23 knots. I am told they don't race if the wind is more than 22 knots (mph?) sustained. So it is a little iffy, but the wind is supposed to keep dying as the day goes on. The wind has already come down 5 knots from what it was earlier this morning.
We have heard there are going to be TWO races today.
actual readings from Molasses Reef Buoy, a couple miles from the race course Molasses Reef Buoy
Conditions at MLRF1 as of (10:00 am EST) Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 17 kts Wind Gust (GST): 19 kts Air Temperature (ATMP): 62.2 °F Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure Continuous Winds TIME (EST) WDIR WSPD 10:00 am N ( 11 deg ) 17 kts 9:50 am N ( 8 deg ) 17 kts 9:40 am N ( 6 deg ) 19 kts 9:30 am NNE ( 13 deg ) 19 kts 9:20 am N ( 7 deg ) 20 kts 9:10 am N ( 5 deg ) 21 kts
Previous observations MM DD TIME (EST) WDIR WSPD kts GST
11 16 9:00 am N 21 24 - - - - - - 60.6 - - - - - 11 16 8:00 am N 24 27 - - - - - - 59.9 - - - - - 11 16 7:00 am N 26 28 - - - - - - 60.4 - - - - - 11 16 6:00 am N 26 30 - - - - - - 62.1 - - - - - 11 16 5:00 am N 29 33 - - - - - - 63.7 - - - - - 11 16 4:00 am N 28 32 - - - - - - 66.4 79.5 - - - - 11 16 3:00 am N 24 26 - - - - - - 68.9 79.7 - - - - 11 16 2:00 am N 16 17 - - - - - - 71.6 - - - - - 11 16 1:00 am NW 11 15 -
What a shame, I had hoped for a great day of racing. I thought that the wind had backed down to 17 with gusts to 20. Oh well! Glen pulls out another big win.
That is well within the class rules. At the warm up event in January, the boats went out on the last day in winds above 22 knots. They clocked down to @15-17 after the first race. Only 17 of the 65 boats made the start, but I thought they did so, because they knew that they could be in this position today.
Congratulations to Glenn <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />,
pity about the last day, but my money was on Glenn if they raced in big breeze any way.
Will look forward to seeing all the top Yanks try to take the title from Glenn in Australia at Lake Macquarie, it is a brilliant sailing location. No where near Glenns home water either, it's about 12 hours away.
Will look forward to seeing all the top Yanks try to take the title from Glenn in Australia at Lake Macquarie, it is a brilliant sailing location. No where near Glenns home water either, it's about 12 hours away.
I'm getting an 'A'. <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />
When the Race Committee and/or the Organizing Authority decided to cancel the racing at 11 am on Friday many competitors were quite disappointed.
Since races could be started up until 2:00 pm, and since it took about 10-15 minutes to reach the starting line from the beach, the decision to cancel the racing at 11 am seemed premature. In addition, wind speed readings from the anemometer of the data station closest to the race course (and 50 feet off the water) were below the class maximum wind speed (22 knots) at 9 am, 10, and 11 am, and were dropping quickly. In fact, the readings were 21 knots at 9 am, 17 knots at 10 am, and 16 knots at 11 am. See attached or http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=mlrf1&meas=wspd&uom=E )(note that the time scale is Greenwich Mean Time, i.e., five hours ahead of local time). This was predicted by the forecast, and the forecast for the rest of the day after 11 am was for steady winds of 15-18 knots. Therefore, many competitors were mystified as to why racing was cancelled, when the recent, immediate and predicted wind speeds were all well below the maximum allowable speed.
A statement on the worlds website reads, "At 1015 the RC sent a boat a couple of miles offshore to where racing would be held to assess the conditions on the spot. Winds at water level continued in the 19-22 knot range with gusts to 28. There was also a fairly severe and square chop setting up with standard waves at 4 feet with frequent sets of 3 waves in the 6 foot range. The OA was concerned with the safety of the sailors as well as the almost certain carnage to equipment that would have resulted if the races would have been held within the time available and Racing was Abandoned at 1100EST." The data in this statement appears difficult to reconcile with the wind speed data recorded by the nearby data buoys, and many competitors wondered how the RC boat recorded its data. Many competitors also felt that they should have been allowed to evaluate the risks of breakage themselves and make their own decisions about whether to race or not.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20, safety of the competiors and their equipment is always a consideration in any regatta, and decisions by an RC will never please everyone. However, many competitors were left scratching their heads after the decision to cancel racing at 11 am on Friday.
When the Race Committee and/or the Organizing Authority decided to cancel the racing at 11 am on Friday many competitors were quite disappointed.
Since races could be started up until 2:00 pm, and since it took about 10-15 minutes to reach the starting line from the beach, the decision to cancel the racing at 11 am seemed premature. In addition, wind speed readings from the anemometer of the data station closest to the race course (and 50 feet off the water) were below the class maximum wind speed (22 knots) at 9 am, 10, and 11 am, and were dropping quickly. In fact, the readings were 21 knots at 9 am, 17 knots at 10 am, and 16 knots at 11 am. See attached or http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=mlrf1&meas=wspd&uom=E )(note that the time scale is Greenwich Mean Time, i.e., five hours ahead of local time). This was predicted by the forecast, and the forecast for the rest of the day after 11 am was for steady winds of 15-18 knots. Therefore, many competitors were mystified as to why racing was cancelled, when the recent, immediate and predicted wind speeds were all well below the maximum allowable speed.
A statement on the worlds website reads, "At 1015 the RC sent a boat a couple of miles offshore to where racing would be held to assess the conditions on the spot. Winds at water level continued in the 19-22 knot range with gusts to 28. There was also a fairly severe and square chop setting up with standard waves at 4 feet with frequent sets of 3 waves in the 6 foot range. The OA was concerned with the safety of the sailors as well as the almost certain carnage to equipment that would have resulted if the races would have been held within the time available and Racing was Abandoned at 1100EST." The data in this statement appears difficult to reconcile with the wind speed data recorded by the nearby data buoys, and many competitors wondered how the RC boat recorded its data. Many competitors also felt that they should have been allowed to evaluate the risks of breakage themselves and make their own decisions about whether to race or not.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20, safety of the competiors and their equipment is always a consideration in any regatta, and decisions by an RC will never please everyone. However, many competitors were left scratching their heads after the decision to cancel racing at 11 am on Friday.
It's frequently difficult to reply to individuals who either were't present or who don't have all the facts. Yes, races could have started as late as 1400. It takes a lot more than 10-15 minutes for the racers to get to the starting area - the process takes almost an hour to get them all in the water and sailing out. That's why the Sailing Instructions were very specific in stating that racing wouldn't start until at least an hour after the AP was lowered ashore. 1230 was discussed as the cut-off time to lower the AP ashore on Friday.
As to the wind and seas, I sure wish you were sitting with me 1.5nm off the beach Friday at 1100 in the area where racing would have been held. Yes, I was the individual who motored out there to assess conditions. Say all you want about the monitoring stations nearby, putting a boat on the course was the best solution - and I was out there from 1000 until 1130. I took wind readings 3 different ways: floating, anchored, and holding position with the engine relative to a crab trap. Floating, I was reading a consistent 17-20knots. Anchored, it was 19-23 gusting to 29. Holding position I read 19-26 gusting to 29 (two gusts over 31). I was using 2 calibrated windspeed instruments.
As to predicted windspeeds, we were briefed beforehand by competitors, event staff, the USCG, SailFlow, and the National Weather Service (NOAA) that wind forecasts for that part of the Keys were not as accurate as they could be. SailFlow seemed to provide the best forecast vs. observed that I saw during my two week stay in Islamorada. I won't debate what was posted by NOAA as observed conditions, but we did question thier forecasting. Again, putting someone on the course was the best decission.
The other thing I observed was the seas in the area. There was a steady steep-faced square chop of a consistent 4feet. About every minute there were sets of 3 at 6+feet. Standing in the powerboat, I frequently lost sight of the beach when in the troughs.
OK, I'll grant you that the windspeed dropped into the 19knot range by noon. But, let's get real - the waves would have sill been there. There would have been carnage on the course as far as boats and equipment are concerned, and perhaps injury. OK, ultimately it's up the the skipper to decide to race or not. But, the Organizing Authority made the right decission, with respect to safety first, with solid information and advice. Thanking them for a stellar event, organized and executed like a Worlds Championship should be run, would be your better course here.
