My Prediction for the F-18 class.

The F-18 class is a great idea and it will take off in the US.

The class will build for a few years with most of the sailors buying Hobie Tigers because they will also be able to sail it at one-design events.

In a few years, just as the F-18 class starts to reach critical mass, some builder will come out with a faster boat under the rule.

At this point the Tiger guys, at least half the fleet, will stop going to F-18 events because their boats are inferior. The Tigers will start sailing one design and the F-18 fleet will die.



If you would like to see a different future now is the time to start thinking about it.

Sorry I don't have a simple solution to the problem.

My prediction :



F18 started in the EU in 1994 we're in 2002 now and tigers are still right among the other designs in the top places.



I think it will go differently. NA F18 will start in US and after a few years everybody suddenly believes against better judgement that a new design is WAY better and the hot racers switch. Than due to nature of the PN system the old F18 designs rating starts to drop because less competitive crews are the only crews still sailing those designs and the new design rating rockets because only hot shot are sailing it.



Every US sailor looks at the number dancing around and sees the few but still all of the new designs finish in the first places (as the same hot shots did with the old designs) and combine these two , very explainable facts, into a new but unjustified truth that the new design really is that much faster and that the formula rule has been broken.



Than all the negative anonimous posters will start to feed on this by saying that they had predicted this but that nobody listened and that One-design is the only true way to sail competitively (when you're right on minimum weight). Thus the situation worsens and other people start believing the new "truth" and the formula is indeed killed of be numbers will be falling. In the EU by that time the same old F18's will be going strong and will be supplying the young new sailor with affordable boats to start in the class. They won't notice the 1 or 2 % disadvantage of old sails etc yet for they are still learning. Some advanced beginner will buy new sails and finish high and slowly the class as a whole grows.



Setting up a class in the USA is much like running a bank in the late 1920's. It doesn't matter how good you are and what you're achievements are the second that the account owners fear that the bank is not creditable, the bank will be dead.



It is all about perception and you are all far to suceptable to it.





Wouter