Does anyone believe these guys, when they forcast the wind conditions??? Their predictions are HORRIBLE! They are lucky if they can just get the direction right. When they forcast wind speeds, they are worthless. How is a person supposted to plan calling in sick to work on a breezy day?

There has got to be a better way.

Jeff,

i use 3 different sites and don't trust any of them. I found intellicast to be better than most. The maps show wind strength and direction for a large area. Yesterday "weather underground" wind forecast was for about 5 mph and intellicast was for over 10 which was about right.

Howard

www.weather.com's wind forecast is usually pretty accurate in TX anyway.

Ah yes, the famous Chesapeake Bay "5 to 15 out of the south" forecast. Covers them from a southwest drifter to a piping southeast sea breeze.

Agree that TV weather is dismal. Typical report is 90 percent what happened yesterday and 10 percent what will happen tomorrow. They no longer even show the surface maps so you can't make up your own forecast.

At least for my area, I have found the NWS coastal forecasts to be pretty accurate. The TV weatherman's "marine forecast" seems to be a straight regurgitation of NWS.

yeah, weather prediction in general is not doing so well. they will usually tell you it's "partly cloudy with a chance of rain" which when you think about it, when is it not partly cloudy with a CHANCE of rain. Anyway. depending on where you are sailing there can be better ways to know the winds. For example, I sail on the ocean and around the area I go the wind and sea are both pretty calm in the second half of comming from high tide to low tide. Then the first half of low tide to high they become steady, but not too fast, the second half of low to high they really pick up (this is the good time to sail) and then the first half of high to low the winds stay fast but the waves really pick up and it becomes too dangerous. This is just an example though of course, if you have the luxury of winds consistant with tides where you are, you might need to observe the conditions relative to tide for a while and try to draw some conclusions.
If you have no tides, then i'm clueless as to how to know, just hope the weather channel is right I guess(hah! yeah right).

No tide here in Minnesota! (Actually, Lake Superior has a very small tide of a few inches.) The nearest thing to a tide on Big Marine Lake is the wakes from the power boaters.

The weather in Minnesota is more unpredictable than the rest of the country. And the Twin Cities TV weathercasters all think they can do BETTER than the Weather Service. And they got egos as big as their Dopplers.-But their wind forcasts ALL SUCK! One station will predict winds 5 to 10 out of the SE. Change the channel and the prediction will be 10 to 20 out of the SW. Arrgh!

The forecast they use almost every day here in Lake Erie is "variable winds 5-15." <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/confused.gif" alt="" /> Well that just about covers everything, doesn't it? <img src="http://www.catsailor.com/forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" />
Well, everything except a hurricane.
Rick

yeah, weather people like to cover themselves by just saying something that covers everything. I guess just dont listen to them unless they say something really specific.

Rick ... You better knock wood. Cindy or Dennis may be coming to a lake near you!

Thankfully, they're getting better at predicting those.

Not that I like the current prediction in the slightest.

down here they predict a hurricane is going to hit about every other hurricane season. there hasnt been one here for over 100 years. but still, every time they issue all these evacuations and everyone freaks out and drives way inland with all their stuff and then nothing happens. I just stopped leaving.

I feel your pain. I hate Paul Douglas. Weather Undergound seems to be semi acurate, but I usually check yahoo weather on my phone about a dozen times through out the day before I hope I to go out. A couple of weeks ago it was supposed to be 10-15, O.K., sounds good. That lasted an hour and the winds went to more like 20-25, thats alot to handle with a green skipper, and crew. We capsized 6 times and became very proficient at righting the boat. Good douple trap weather tho,

Where is "down here"?

If you guys are interested enough you may want to try the following site:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/avnmosmap.html

AVN (GFS) MOS is a statistical version of computer model output that meteorologists use. To make a long story short, for wind direction and speed it is highly detailed and probably as accurate and not as generalized as any NWS or similar forecast.

For example, if you want a forecast for Pompano Beach, FL:

1) Click on Florida
2) Scroll down the list or use find to get to Pompano

At the top shows the date and time stamp (what data the computer used to make the forecast). On the left, WDR is wind direction (add a zero to get degrees based on true north), WSP is windspeed in knots. The time and date is towards the top. This is GMT time, so east coasters need to subtract 4 hours in the summer, 5 in the winter, etc.

Remember these forecasts are for airports, so chances are the wind may be a tad stronger along the coast...unless you are getting a forecast for someplace like Cleveland Burke Lakefront, etc.

A decoder is available here:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mavcard.htm

Enjoy!

"down here" is Saint Simons Island, Georgia. A small barrier island near Brunswick, Georgia, if you know where that is. It's about half way between Savanah and Jacksonville.