I should have left the time stamp on the first image, but here is the video at 32 seconds, where S would have HAD to begin aborting her bear away in order to do what you ask of her to avoid breaking 16.1. In my opinion, there is absolutely no way S could even begin to fathom that P would continue on their course into the string of starboard boats and I wouldn't expect her to start taking avoiding action. In particular, P has plenty of room to maneuver to her left to avoid the starboard boats. With regards to rule 16.1, at T-32 seconds, S is within about 10 degrees to her starboard downwind course and even if she holds this higher angle, P has PLENTY of room to keep clear with the course S has established. S's manuever to turn downwind was also concise (not to mention completely expected- although I realize this isn't part of the rule).

This is at T=32 seconds


Now, moving forward just a little less than 2 seconds, it becomes clear that P is intent on passing through the string of boats. S starts taking an avoiding action to starboard precisely at this point. If P had held her course, S would have been able to avoid her with her action. Unfortunately, P did not hold her course and steered up instead.

A little less than 2 seconds later:


So, I guess your argument boils down to at what point you think S should have identified P as a possible collision course. I think the point where it was clear that P was not keeping clear was at T=34seconds - precisely when S did attempt to maneuver to avoid P.